《大行報告》摩通:內房銷售未明顯復甦 料板塊跑輸大市 對陷財困開發商保持審慎
摩根大通發表報告指,與中原地產的專家進行會議,按中原數據,黃金周期間,內地30個城市一手及二手樓宇銷售,按年分別增長17%及35%,不過專家指,自8月以來新盤認購比率只是維持約37%,估計10月份一手銷售按年將錄得跌幅。
該行指,中原的數據包括網簽及認購,因此數據與其他機構的統計不同。若果按該行收集的收據﹐黃金周首九日,20個城市日均銷售按年跌12%,60個城市一周銷售按年跌23%。
報告指,市場仍然分化,有國營發展商指,黃金周期間的認購按年有正面增長,但一些面對困境的內房商仍然掙扎中。該行估計內地樓市第四季不會明顯復甦,只會按年跌幅輕微收窄。若果樓市措施持續放寬,明年銷售額將會企穩在大約9萬至10萬億元人民幣。
由於內房銷售數據並無明顯復甦,估計內房股維持跑輸大市,直至有更強烈的放寬措施,偏好撈底國營企業,例如華潤置地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)。在配對交易策略可以做多潤地、做空萬科(02202)﹔對所有面對困境的內房維持審慎。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.