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《大行報告》交銀國際料內地今季一線城市房產市場率先企穩復甦 銷售略回升
交銀國際發表研究報告指出,該行跟蹤的26家主要上市開發商9月銷售額按月上升19%,主要由於銷售均價顯著上漲(按月增長16%),銷售面積也實現小幅上升(按月升3%)。 其中,融創中國(01918.HK)憑借北京「融創壹號院」56億元人民幣的總認購金額,合同銷售實現顯著增長(按月升130%)。26家開發商在首九月銷售表現分化,與去年同期相比,國企合同銷售普遍上升0%至30%,而民企則全線下跌約30%至50%。當中表現最好的開發商包括保利置業(00119.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)和建發(01908.HK),分別增長52%、40%及32%。 該行認為,國企仍主導市場,在前十開發商中,民企數量維持3家,分別為碧桂園(02007.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)和金地集團,排名維持在7、9及10位。在前50的房企中,前九個月國企合同銷售額市佔率維持在約66%,相對於首八個月為66%。 此外,該行預計核心一線城市房地產市場率先企穩復甦。9月以來,各線城市樓市優化政策密集出台,包括認房不認貸、下調存量房房貸利率、優化或取消限購政策等。步入「金九銀十」傳統旺季,隨著各地樓市寬鬆政策陸續落地,開發商在一線以及核心二線城市加大推盤力度,加上政策對於改善性需求端的支持作用,9月銷售額在一、二線城市回穩,預計第四季一線城市房地產市場將率先企穩恢復,銷售會略有回升。 在密集支持政策出台和推盤力度加大下,該行預計改善性需求購買力會得到提振,銷售氣氛以及項目去化會在第四季度改善。該行相信銷售業績較好且融資成本較低的國企會長期領先大市,包括越秀和華潤置地(01109.HK),均予以「買入」評級(看另表)。另外,該行建議投資者關注政策放寬帶來民企重估的交易機會,當中偏好大灣區/一線城市佈局較多的開發商。
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