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利空突襲!亞太市場遭遇“股債匯”三殺,MSCI亞太指數進入技術性熊市
格隆匯 10-04 13:48

在隔夜美股大幅調整,道瓊斯指數跌1.29%,創3月份來表現最差的一天,跌至年初的起步價,今日亞太市場跟隨下挫,遭遇“股債匯”三殺。

截至早盤收盤,日經225指數早盤收跌-1.76%,東證指數跌-1.76%,韓國綜合指數(KOSPI)收跌-2.17%,MSCI亞太指數跌超1%,年內累跌超10%,邁向技術性熊市。

此外,港股方面,早盤同樣低開震盪,香港恒生指數跌1.04%,恒生科技指數跌1.71%。主要行業板塊全線下跌,食品與主要用品零售、消費者服務、零售業、能源、汽車與汽車零部件、半導體與半導體生產設備等行業板塊跌幅居前。

此外,富時中國A50指數期貨跌逾1%。

消息面上,本週公佈的JOLTS數據顯示美國職位空缺數量大於預期,就業市場持續火熱,進一步強化了美聯儲維持利率“更高更久”的前景。投資者擔心,美聯儲可能會在更長時間內提高利率,可能會使經濟陷入衰退。

債市方面,強數據推高美債收益率,週二,十年期美債收益率日內上升5個基點達4.835%,創下16年新高,而三十年期美債收益率升幅更高達16個基點,逼近4.966%,兩年期美債收益率高見5.156%,日內升4.4個基點,接近9月21日創下的逾17年高位。同時,美元指數(DXY)升超0.7%至107.03,創逾10個月新高。

債券交易員認定,美債收益率在未來幾周內會攀升,預計10年期美債收益率將超過5%,並可能達到更高的水平。隨着國債市場跌勢擴大,在過去一週的利率選擇權中,交易員針對新風險買入了一些看跌對沖工具。

美債及美元影響下,亞洲主要債券價格普遍下跌。

日元、韓元、泰銖、印尼盾等亞洲貨幣匯率普遍走低。

韓國央行表示,將密切監控市場和資本流動,如有需要,將採取市場穩定措施。

值得一提是,隔夜美元走強,日本外匯市場劇烈波動,日元兑美元一度跌破150日元大關,創下去年10月以來新低,隨後神祕買家出手,將日元拉昇至148元一線,市場猜測是日本財務省出手干預。

日本首席貨幣外交官Masato Kanda表示,有必要時將指示日本央行進行干預。他稱,將採取適當措施反對過度舉動,但不排除任何選擇。

日本財務省大臣鈴木俊一表示,不排除採取任何措施應對過度的外匯波動,匯率應該由市場決定,匯率穩定很重要,不希望看到匯率快速波動。日本財務省副大臣神田真人則稱,與岸田文雄討論了經濟總體情況,對是否進行外匯干預不予置評。日本內閣官房長官松野博一表示,將繼續採取適當措施應對匯率(波動)。

週五,家庭支出必須反映出緩解日元壓力的動力變化。在週五公佈數據之前,服務業採購經理人指數的向上修正將為日元提供支撐。根據初步數據,au Jibun銀行服務業PMI從54.3下降至53.3。服務業佔國內生產總值(GDP)的70%,服務業活動疲軟可能導致日元處於守勢。

此外,今晚“小非農”美國ADP就業變化和ISM非製造業PMI數據將對美元/日元至關重要。服務業活動的意外回升將支持美聯儲採取更加鷹派的利率路徑,美國服務業對美國經濟的貢獻率超過75%。

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