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《大行報告》花旗首予嘉里物流(00636.HK)「買入」評級 目標價9元
花旗發表報告指,首予嘉里物流(00636.HK)「買入」評級,目標價9元,但考慮到全球宏觀疲弱風險,亦予其高風險評級。該行提到,嘉里物流在行業中具有穩固地位,專注於跨太平洋航線,而且隨著運價正常化,國際貨運代理業務(IFF)的前景或會更加穩定。此外,被順豐(002352.SZ)收購的好處或逐漸顯現,包括電商快遞虧損有望進一步收窄、網路整合和客群共享等。該行認為,任何擴大IFF業務的收購及成功縮小電子商務和快遞(E&E)虧損都是未來的關鍵催化劑。 該行表示,雖然運費下跌令集團上半年利潤大幅下滑,並導致其股價大幅回調,但相信IFF的負面因素已基本被消化,最壞的情況可能已經過去;運費在今年首季觸底,意味著在旺季的推動下,下半年表現或較上半年改善。不過,基於全球宏觀疲軟,該行預計短期內運價不會反彈。對於綜合物流(IL),該行料隨著香港經濟逐步復甦及內地業務基數較低,今年下半年料較上半年輕微改善。 該行預計集團2023至25年各年收入將分別為541億、560億及585億元,意味著於2023年按年料跌37%,其後按年分別增長3%和4%。該行又料公司的非通用會計準則(non-GAAP)純利於2023年按年跌69%至10.95億元,並在2024及25年分別增23及12%,至分別13.49億及15.17億元。意味各年non-GAAP淨利潤率分別2%、2.4%及2.6%。
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