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《大行報告》花旗:內地9月房屋銷售弱預期 觀望放鬆措施成效
花旗發表報告指,據克而瑞數據,內地35間上市內房商9月份銷售2,950億元人民幣,少過市場預期,亦低於上半年每月平均銷售3,770億元人民幣,部分是因為各地的放寬措施大多於9月中才公布。雖然銷售數字按月上升21%,但按年仍跌26%,首九個月按年則跌12%。 報告指,政策重點輕微轉向容許某程度的價格彈性,藉此推動成交。與14年10月至15年12月的政策放寬周期比較,今輪二線城市政策放寬較快及更廣泛,部分買家等待再有新措施,例如下調按揭利率下限、放寬一線城市郊區限購等,9月銷售只有輕微增長,需要繼續評估,直至11月份才可真正反映政策成效。該行認為,可持續的需求復甦取決於對居民對工作及薪酬的預期、樓價穩定、對發展商交付信心。 該行估計內房股價短期受政策推動而回升,但要待11月評估樓市,以及視乎會否出現新的信貸風險個案,較為偏好市場份額增長的行業龍頭,首選華潤置地(01109.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)、貝殼(02423.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)及綠城中國(03900.HK)。
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