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郭思治:大市在交投偏疏下仍處反覆不明之中
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,9月大市在先高後低之形態主導下,技術上差不多屬由頭跌到尾,恆指是由4日之高位18,899點反覆跌至28日之低位17,352點,即月內之波幅為1,547點,單論波幅確相對為細,惟由於大市之交投持續偏疏,故在買賣兩閑之下,月內之波幅略為偏細,值得留意的是,以恆指於9月底報收於17,809點計,即仍反覆於多組常用之平均移動線之下,加上各組平均移動線已呈倒序模式,單從走勢上看,整個大市目前正處於一個標準的跌市模式之中,即是說,大市仍有機會再進一步往下尋年內之新低,畢竟直到目前一刻止計,本年大市在先高後低之形態主導下,恆指暫是由1月27日之高位22,700點跌至9月28日之低位17,352點,即年內之波幅為5,348點,此波幅相對過去三年作比較頗為偏細,故在本年餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,假如先高後低之形態不變,即表示大市將會進一步往下尋年內新低,從而擴闊年內大市之波幅以滿足所需。 大市能否擺脫反覆續尋底之弱態,當需先留意新經濟股之表現,因目前騰訊(00700.HK)在恆指內之成份比重佔達8%,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)在恆指內之成份比重亦佔達8%,至於美團-W(03690.HK)則佔6.02%,而京東-SW(09618.HK)亦佔達2.17%,即上述四隻新經濟股在恆指內之比重已共佔達24.7%,對大市而言影響性當不容低估。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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