《大行報告》大摩下調電能(00006.HK)目標價至44元 降長建(01038.HK)目標價至42元
摩根士丹利發表報告,經考慮下調現金流估算後,將電能實業(00006.HK)目標價由53元下調至44元,長江基建(01038.HK)目標價由50元下調至42元,兩者當中偏好電能多於長建,並維持兩者「與大市同步」評級,認為股息率穩定,但美國利率上升周期及英鎊貶值,仍為短期風險。
報告降長建今明兩年經常性純利預測分別21%及22%,料分別68.91億及67.97億元,並較市場預測分別低出29%及23%;報告另降電能今明兩年經常性純利預測分別13%及20%,料分別53.76億及53.81億元,並較市場預測分別低出12%及16%。
報告指,長建預測股息率6.9%、電能為7.3%,新地(00016.HK)預告明年度派息減少,相信其他本地企業跟隨,但長建及電能可以維持每股派息。長建的現金流支持派息,6月底手持現金120億元、負債比率9%,電能則為淨現金狀態,雖然淨現金由去年底26.58億元減少至今年6月底的6.38億元。
該行預期,美國十年期債息第三季升至4.3%、第四季回落至3.65%,英鎊明年料貶值4%,美國利率周期及英鎊貶值為短期風險因素。在本地公用股當中偏好中電控股(00002.HK),主要因為澳洲盈利復甦及本港業務增長具可見度。
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