大行評級|摩根士丹利:目前香港地產股估值便宜
摩根士丹利發表報吿指,經常性收益是派息可持續性的關鍵,長實集團及新鴻基地產經常性股權自由現金流收益率高於10%,而其他同業遠低於此水平,恒基地產只有2%,新世界發展則為負數。報吿指,年初至今,香港地產發展商股價跑輸恒指13個百分點,新世界中期派息削減18%、新地以派息比率目標範圍上限派息、意味2024年度派息將減少。目前地產股估值以市賬率計少於0.5倍、市盈率計少於10倍、資產淨值(NAV)折讓超過50%,估值便宜,建議以經常業務的自由現金流收益率、取代股息率作評選。當中長實及新地經常性股權自由現金流收益率分別為13.3%及12%,屬非常吸引。信和置業為8.6%,受惠於淨利息收入。較負面的是恒地,只有2.4%,因為新發展中的項目有較大負債,而短期未產生租金回報。新世界的經常性收入低於其淨利息開支。
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