《大行報告》摩通:民企及低質素國企內房信貸風險上升 平安銀行(000001.SZ)及民行(01988.HK)可能面臨更多下行風險
摩根大通發表研究報告指,所有民企及低質素國企內房的信貸風險均在上升。截至今年上半年,陷入困境的開發商佔上市內房債務的46%。數據顯示,優質國企內房的流動性在今年上半年錄得改善,但所有非不良債權及低質素國企內房的現金與短期負債比率和3%的上市內房債務分別大幅惡化。
該行表示,截至今年上半年,其所覆蓋銀行的內房貸款不良率為4.5%,預計在基本情況下這個數字將上升至約7.5%,但如果所有民企及低品質國企內房都陷入困境,這個數字或會上升至13%,可能導致總不良貸款率額外增加48個基點,2024年盈利下降10%。該行認為,平安銀行(000001.SZ)和民生銀行(01988.HK)或面臨更大下行風險,而招行(03968.HK)、工行(01398.HK)和建行(00939.HK)的脆弱性可能較小。
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