惠譽博華:下調存量房貸利率對商業銀行淨息差影響屬可控
評級機構惠譽旗下內地全資附屬惠譽博華表示,近年來中國在內外複雜環境影響下,宏觀經濟增速回落,居民信用擴張顯著放緩,LPR多次下調使得新發與存量房貸利率利差持續走擴,個人按揭提前還貸衝擊銀行資產負債表,6月份個人住房按揭貸款自2015年後首次增速轉負,對銀行涉房類信貸規模及淨息差水平均造成一定負面影響。
惠譽博華指,本輪存款利率下調亦符合市場預期。2023年以來存款定期化趨勢的延續使得商業銀行存款成本率邊際上升,在貸款利率下行通道中進一步擠壓商業銀行息差空間。
惠譽博華認為,從銀行資產負債端綜合來看,三種情景假設下存量房貸利率下調預計拖累上市銀行淨息差3至6個基點,而存款利率下調將拉動息差回升3.7個基點。惠譽博華預計,提前還貸的減少對息差有一定支撐作用,故結合存貸兩端來看,存量房貸利率下調對於商業銀行淨息差及利潤水平影響可控。
分銀行類型來看,大行受到負面衝擊最大,股份行次之,而對區域性城商行、農商行影響相對有限,部分城農商行受益於存款利率下調息差或將回升,零售業務強勢、存款客戶基礎良好的銀行更將受益。
惠譽博華認為,上市銀行整體在本輪存貸利率同時調降後銀行淨息差仍將出現一定下降,未來在支持實體經濟需求復甦,以及配合地方政府化債過程中,商業銀行貸款利率仍存在一定的下行可能,為緩和銀行息差和利潤水平壓力,從負債端著手降低存款成本勢在必行,後續央行政策上仍有成本調降空間。
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