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惠譽:中國近期購屋政策鬆綁 提振全國新建商品住宅銷售可能性不大
惠譽評級表示,中國近期的購屋政策寬鬆潮將對二手住宅市場產生相對較大影響,但不太可能持續拉動新建商品住宅的銷售。 惠譽預期,中國多數城市將於9月底前開放住宅交易的限制政策,因為各地方政府紛紛趕在房地產市場傳統銷售旺季「金九銀十」(9-10月)之前刺激住宅銷售。這意味著,若此舉的正面效果(如有)最終僅曇花一現,則多數中低能階城市進一步放鬆此等政策的空間或將更為有限。 近期高能階城市放寬了首套房貸的相關規定,這刺激銷售在政策落地後的首周內激增。不過,隨著積壓需求的充分釋放,市場熱度迅速降溫。 惠譽認為,二手住宅市場是近期政策鬆綁的主要受益者,因為,在房地產行業下行的背景下,購屋者青睞房價更具韌性的黃金地段,而此類地段新建商品住宅的供應有限。購屋者對期房(尤其是民營房企開發的項目)交付品質保障的顧慮,將繼續為多數新建商品住宅項目蒙上一層陰影。 高能階城市之一廣州於9月20日進一步放寬非核心城區限購政策,並縮減了合格購屋者在核心城區購屋應滿足的個稅或社保最低繳納年限。惠譽認為,更多分城區限購的高能階城市將隨後效仿,以推動非核心城區(抑或核心城區)的住宅銷售。此等政策(若得以推出)可能進一步令需求向大型城市集中,因為大型城市的住宅銷售限制政策通常較為嚴格。這對全國新建商品住宅銷售的貢獻甚微,因為高能階城市在全國新建商品住宅銷售總額中的佔比較小。 若需求向高能階城市和黃金地段集中的趨勢延續,在低能級城市、或中能級城市非核心城區擁有大量土儲的房企或將在更長期內面臨其新建商品住宅銷售疲軟和經營性現金流為負的局面。
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