《大行報告》大摩:澳門賭股昨日遭無理拋售 市場對賭場內「換錢黨」刑事化報道反應過度
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,由於《GGRAsia》報道指澳門或將對賭場內未經許可的「換錢黨」定為刑事罪行,受消息拖累昨日(25日)澳門賭股遭無理拋售,惟該行認為市場反應過度,因賭股下跌的原因亦有機會是由於與中介人規則相關的負面消息影響。
對於賭場內「換錢黨」刑事化報道,該行提及澳門政府官員正討論將刑事定罪作為一種可能性,但還需時討論,而現有的懲罰措施包括罰款和禁止進入賭場。雖然《GGRAsia》引述顧問預測非法「換錢」佔行業賭收50%至60%,惟該行指由於流動性替代渠道和現金賭徒普遍,相信實際敞口較少。
此外,澳門未來一年澳門最多只能有50間博彩中介人,市場料對金沙中國(01928.HK)及美高梅中國(02282.HK)帶來正面影響(各有12及8個中介人),對永利澳門(01128.HK)及銀娛(00027.HK)則較為負面(各有5個中介人)。然而,大摩認為對賭股影響不大,因任何營運商均能利用子代理提供相關服務。
該行指出,美國十年期國債息率高企,不利於整個股票市場,澳門的確有幾家高槓桿的公司,美高梅中國及永利澳門皆有2024年到期的債券,但他們均產生自由現金流,該行預期再融資並不難。
根據該行對賭股明年的預測,現估值相當於預測明年企業價值對EBITDA倍數約9.9倍,近期濠賭股被拋售,可視為十月黃金周表現強勁前的買入的機會。
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