惠譽:中國電力現貨交易新規將促進可再生能源消納
惠譽評級表示,中國近日發布的全國《電力現貨市場基本規則(試行)》有助於發現電力實時價格,因而或可促進可再生能源的消納,同時亦有助於平衡高峰時段的電力供需。新規確立全國電力現貨市場基本管理原則,各地區隨後可基於各自的市場特徵因地施策。惠譽預計,各地有關部門將有序漸進地推出現貨市場,以減少對發電公司和用戶的影響。
目前,中國的電力市場以中長期電力交易為主,僅甘肅、廣東、山東、山西、陜西、江西和蒙西等少數地區建立了現貨市場。也有其他部分省份啟動了模擬試運行。這些省份試點市場的規模仍較小,用於年度或月度售電合同中分時曲線的偏差電量結算。惠譽認為,即便新規發布,政府仍將鼓勵發電公司和用戶繼續簽訂中長期合同,以確保供電穩定。
隨著現貨市場滲透率提升,將有更多長期合同包含分時價格曲線,以價格信號來解決電力過剩或不足的問題。在高峰時段,火力發電和燃氣發電的電價可能更高,以此引導電力用戶錯峰用電並減輕負荷高峰時的供電壓力。此外,還設置了價格上下限以控制波動。
與此同時,更多反映實時供需形勢的價格差異則有利於促進可再生能源電力的消納。在可再生能源發電量增加的時段出現的下行價格壓力可引導火電和燃氣發電企業減少發電。由於可變成本大幅低於火電,可再生能源在價格上更具競爭力。然而由於定價機制更及時,可再生能源電力的間歇性特點導致了其在供需發生變化時即時調節發電量的能力較弱,因而有時可能存在電價下降的風險。
惠譽預計,隨著可再生能源在電力結構中的佔比上升,將有更多火電廠逐步過渡到基本負荷並專注於調峰供電,這與政府的脫碳政策目標一致。
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