《大行報告》大摩:市場過份憂慮小鵬-W(09868.HK)潛在集資及毛利壓力
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,小鵬-W(09868.HK)(XPEV.US)的美股及H股於過去兩日分別調整12%至14%,相對於同期納斯達克及恆生國企指數跌約2%至4%。板塊情緒疲弱,加劇市場對小鵬潛在集資和毛利受壓的憂慮。
然而,該行認為市場反應過度,並指G9定價進取和簡化的型號/規格組合,已從渠道中產生建設性回饋;且G9 Max的性價比吸引部分G6的用家升級,該行認為並不是一件壞事。該行預期G6仍是公司的銷售支柱,訂單量佔比超過六成,但供應緊張仍是主要問題,長期的樽頸將無可避免地抑制需求。該行料小鵬年底的市場份額變動中,G6仍佔有主導地位,而G9、P7i和導航系統City NGP則屬「錦上添花」。
此外,投資者認為G9進取的定價是一把雙面刃,或影響小鵬毛利,但該行預期毛利將不會大幅稀釋,因為目前G6、改進的G9和即將推出的磷酸鐵鋰電池(LFP)版P7i的毛利率應處於中至高單位數。
對於潛在集資的憂慮方面,該行指像小鵬般的大型電動車初創企業尚在「燒銀紙」階段,因此並不排除任何潛在集資活動將影響股價表現,而在宏觀環境嚴峻下,股市反應或更為劇烈。然而,小鵬健康的現金狀況、經營現金流改善、信貸額度充裕,加上來自大眾汽車的7億美元投資,相信可為小鵬在尋求任何集資上提供更好的時機。對其美股目標價25.4美元,評級「增持」。
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