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罗兵咸永道料内银净息差下半年再下降幅度不大 大型银行派息维持稳定
罗兵咸永道中国发布内地银行业报告。今年上半年,内地58家上市银行整体营业收入较去年同期增长0.5%,较去年同期增速明显回落。净利润按年升幅减慢至近3.5%,增速按年放缓2.78个百分点,比去年全年更放缓4.5个百分点,受到持续让利实体经济和市场利率下行等影响。 罗兵咸永道香港银行业与资本市场主管合伙人谭文杰表示,由于银行业绩往往落后于整体宏观经济周期,预期银行业面临的压力和挑战将持续到下半年。 截至6月底,内地银行对公房地产业贷款整体不良率为4.2%,较上年底增加0.17个百分点;大型银行不良率于高点回落,但股份制银行及城农商行风险仍持续暴露。首六个月,上市银行对公房地产业贷款规模约7.86万亿元人民币,占对公贷款总规模8.6%,较2022年底下降0.75个百分点。 对于地方政府债会否拖累内银盈利从而削减派息,谭文杰表示,今年上半年内地大型银行派息比率约30%以上,下半年内地大型银行派息将维持稳定。但中小型银行如果未能透过发债等集资渠道补充资本,下半年或明年可能会影响个别中小型银行的派息。 展望净息差,谭文杰续指,继银行减费让利支持实体经济后,内地政府于第二季货币政策报告首提保持商业银行合理利润,因此预计内银净息差保持在合理稳定水平,下半年再下降幅度不会太多。
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