羅兵咸永道料內銀淨息差下半年再下降幅度不大 大型銀行派息維持穩定
羅兵咸永道中國發布內地銀行業報告。今年上半年,內地58家上市銀行整體營業收入較去年同期增長0.5%,較去年同期增速明顯回落。淨利潤按年升幅減慢至近3.5%,增速按年放緩2.78個百分點,比去年全年更放緩4.5個百分點,受到持續讓利實體經濟和市場利率下行等影響。
羅兵咸永道香港銀行業與資本市場主管合夥人譚文傑表示,由於銀行業績往往落後於整體宏觀經濟週期,預期銀行業面臨的壓力和挑戰將持續到下半年。
截至6月底,內地銀行對公房地產業貸款整體不良率為4.2%,較上年底增加0.17個百分點;大型銀行不良率於高點回落,但股份制銀行及城農商行風險仍持續暴露。首六個月,上市銀行對公房地產業貸款規模約7.86萬億元人民幣,佔對公貸款總規模8.6%,較2022年底下降0.75個百分點。
對於地方政府債會否拖累內銀盈利從而削減派息,譚文傑表示,今年上半年內地大型銀行派息比率約30%以上,下半年內地大型銀行派息將維持穩定。但中小型銀行如果未能透過發債等集資渠道補充資本,下半年或明年可能會影響個別中小型銀行的派息。
展望淨息差,譚文傑續指,繼銀行減費讓利支持實體經濟後,內地政府於第二季貨幣政策報告首提保持商業銀行合理利潤,因此預計內銀淨息差保持在合理穩定水平,下半年再下降幅度不會太多。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.