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中銀香港:美聯儲年內將有機會進一步收緊政策
阿思達克 09-21 12:05
美聯儲一如預期維持聯邦基金利率區間在5.25至5.5%不變。中銀香港個人數字金融產品部財富策略及分析處高級財富策略師張詩琪指,若美國通脹未有明顯回落,年內還有進一步收緊政策的可能,高利率至少要維持一段較長的時間。 張詩琪指,美聯儲調高今年經濟增長預測,由6月時上升1%至預期上升2.1%,並同時將失業率預測下調至3.8%。此外,美聯儲關注,反映通脹的核心個人消費開支平減指數(Core PCE)亦同時由3.9%下調至3.7%。張詩琪認為這表明美聯儲有信心在控制通脹回落時,不會對就業市場造成太大影響。 在經濟溫和增長及通脹有望回落的背景下,張詩琪預期將有利股票市場的表現。然而,在高利率環境之下,加上過往經濟於債息倒掛後會出現衰退,投資者要慎防股票市場的波動性。至於對企業盈利的影響,便要視乎美國經濟是否真的能夠軟著陸。
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