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瑞銀「全球房地產泡沫指數」香港降至第六位 房價仍被高估
阿思達克 09-21 10:57
瑞銀髮表今年《全球房地產泡沫指數》報告指出,過去兩年全球通脹和利率飆升導致全球金融中心房地產市場失衡情況平均急劇下降,只有蘇黎世和東京仍處於房地產泡沫風險類別,比一年前的9個城市大幅減少。 上述研究中,瑞銀分析全球25個主要城市的住房價格。由2022年中至2023年中,城市實際樓價平均下降5%。價格可能會進一步下跌。 報告提及,以前處於泡沫風險區的多倫多、法蘭克福、慕尼黑、香港、溫哥華、阿姆斯特丹和特拉維夫,目前均處於估值過高的區域。與去年相比,邁阿密、日內瓦、洛杉磯、倫敦、斯德哥爾摩、巴黎和悉尼的房地產市場也持續被高估。 榜單中,蘇黎世的房地產泡沫指數達1.71,全球稱首。緊隨其後的爲東京,指數達1.65。身三至第五位爲邁阿密、慕尼黑及法蘭克福。 至於香港的房地產泡沫指數達1.24,跌至第六位,報告指自有關研究開始以來,香港一直處於泡沫風險水平。然而,香港經脹調整後的樓價在2022年中至2023年中下降7%後,已重回2017年的水平。家庭隨着人口流入增加,過去四個季度槓桿趨於穩定,租金幾乎沒有變動。 然而,內地的高抵押貸款利率和緩慢的經濟復甦給住房需求帶來壓力。總體而言,該行認爲香港的價值被高估。而庫存上升表明房地產市場在不久的將來將持續疲軟。 此外,港人置業負擔能力在25個城市中表現最差,以專業技能服務行業(skilled service worker)爲例,若要買入面積約650方尺的單位,樓價平均爲年薪的22倍,即就算不吃不喝也要以22年收入才能上車,拋離日本東京的15年及法國巴黎的14年。
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