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渣打料人行末季及明年首季各降MLF利率10點子 明年首季料再降準
阿思達克 09-20 12:37
渣打全球研究發表報告,指暑期需求高漲和政策進一步放鬆支持下,內地8月經濟增速快於普遍預期。但房地產市場持續收縮,8月新房銷售面積和房地產投資按年分別降15%和10.9%。報告認為,儘管宏觀政策進一步放鬆,或難以在短期內見成效帶動復甦。 該行仍預計中國今年能夠實現5%左右的官方增長目標。上半年平均GDP按年增長達到5.4%,加之去年四季度有利基數效應,應有助於提振四季度GDP增長。自7月以來,政府持續加大穩增長力度,包括提高個稅專項附加扣除標準,降低首套和二套房最低首付比例,下調新發放和存量按揭貸款利率等。 不過,由於經濟中存在的結構性因素疊加市場信心低迷,削弱了傳統刺激措施的實際效力,因此該行認為宏觀經濟政策有必要進一步放鬆,以維持經濟持續復蘇勢頭。 渣打仍預計央行將於四季度和2024年一季度下調中期借貸便利(MLF)利率各一次,每次下調10個基點。該行還預計央行將在2024年一季度將下調存款準備金率25個基點,確保為明年信貸增長儘早提供充裕流動性。 報告稱,近期政府多部門表態稱將進一步改善外商投資環境,穩住外商投資信心,加大吸引外商投資力度。報告預計內地明年經濟增長將進一步恢復到正常水平。
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