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《大行報告》高盛降本港今年住宅樓價預測至無起跌 下調地產股目標價
高盛發表報告指,本地主要銀行上調住宅按揭利率50點子,本月18日起生效,上調幅度是今次加息周期以來最大,新造按揭成本平均由3.6%上升至4.1%,現有按揭成本維持3.3%至3.5%,主要因為銀行間資金成本上升。該行維持2024年度一個月HIBOR預測約4.7%,低於今年7月平均水平的5.1%,意味按揭利率在今次上升周期料已見頂。 報告指,按揭利率上升,對買家負擔能力進一步造成壓力,雖然自去年第二季負擔能力改善,但今年利率已累升75點子、以及樓價升約3%,令改善的情況被大致扭轉。因此該行將今年住宅樓價預測,由原先的上升5%,下調至無升跌。 該行認為,利率上升周期較預期長、本地經濟及市民收入的增長較預期慢、住宅庫存上升、內地樓價下跌,繼續對今年以後的負擔能力造成壓力,預期2024及2025年住宅樓價持平,2026年上升4%。 因應住宅樓價預測下調,該行亦下調地產股的目標價(詳見另表),並維持長實集團(01113.HK)「買入」評級、維持信置(00083.HK)「沽售」評級。另維持新地(00016.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)及嘉里建設(00683.HK)「中性」評級。 報告補充,即使地產股股價受壓,估值逼近歷史低位,但在美國減息在望前,尚未見到有重估催化劑。
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