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植耀輝:越南股市跑出有因 港股第四季變數仍多
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,還記得在去年11月跟大家談過越南股市嗎?筆者當時拆解其表現差之背後原因,同時亦指不少投資者包括三星集團等仍願意投資該地(「別人恐懼我貪婪」的例子)。舊事重提的原因,在於當地股市今年表現理想,年初至今累升已超過兩成,為全球其中一個表現最佳市場。上升背後與當地經濟以及投資信心恢復有關。越南8月PMI回升至50.5,為6個月以來首次重上50水平,當中企業對未來12個月產量前景之樂觀情緒亦升至5個月新高;加上解封後旅遊業持續復甦,越南央行接連減息亦利好投資環境,相信越南股市在今年餘下時間續有好表現。 反觀港股,本週暫時未見起色,雖然17,800至18,000點區間支持力甚強,但亦未見有力反彈。截至昨日為止,恆指及科指年內分別累跌8.8%及1.7%,單計第三季則恆指下跌4.6%,科指則升3.8%。恆指第四季能否追回失地,以現時情況而言仍相當有難度,內地經濟表現繼續成為市場關注焦點,房地產隨著多招齊發下應逐步有所改善,但亦難寄望短期會有強勁反彈;外圍方面,聯儲局年內可能再加息0.25厘、日本央行亦可能結束負利率政策、俄烏戰事左右能源及糧食供應以及沙特延長石油減產力度均為投資市場帶來相當多挑戰。鑑於投資環境依舊相當「難攪」,恆指若能守穩上文提到之支持區已算不俗,惟一旦跌破該水平,則後市「穿底」機會相當高。 當然,即使市況不濟,但依然會有好股值得投資,即所謂「炒股不炒市」。不過現階段要發掘潛力股亦非易事,故筆者暫亦只會按兵不動,持股將繼續持有,待市況漸趨明朗始再出擊。 (筆者為證監會持牌人) ************ 港股中止六連跌 今日焦點內地經濟數據 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(14日)美股三大指數造好,升幅均超過0.8%,當中以道指表現最理想,升幅近0.96%,昨日焦點為ARM(ARM.US)上市,首日表現亦相當理想,升25%,亦利好科指表現。至於反映中概股表現之金龍指數亦升近1%。 港股方面,在資源股及內銀股造好支持下,恆指終見反彈,收報18,047點,上升38點或0.21%,科指亦升0.44%,收報4,059點,不過交投未見太大改善,全日成交只得816億元。油股表現出色,中海油(00883.HK)升5%並再創新高,而以升幅計則以中石油(00857.HK)最佳,升近6%。內房相關股則又再度偏軟,融創(01918.HK)大跌8.8%,碧服(06098.HK)亦跌5.9%。 昨晚人民行突降準有望利好今日(15日)投資氣氛,不過今早內地將公布上月經濟數據,當中零售銷售及固投等表現對後市發展會有較大啟示,若表現勝預期,則恆指始有望打破近日拉鋸情況。 至於技術分析方面,恆指昨日升幅雖不顯著,惟總算中止六連跌,但走勢仍受制於10天(18,300點)及20天線(18,182點),MACD亦似出現「雙熊」,意味上向動能不足,短期若仍無法重上18,300點之上,則後市仍有較大機會考驗17,800點支持。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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