《大行報告》瑞銀:本港樓價可能需要下跌兩成才可提升租金回報至4.13% 持平實質按揭成本
瑞銀發表報告指,本港銀行上調H按鎖息上限,將會令樓價進一步下跌,假設在人口流入增加、推動住宅租金上升10%,明年利率沒有下調,維持目前的實質按揭成本下,本港住宅樓價需要下跌20%,租金回報才可以由3%提升至4.13%,該行的計算亦顯示,實質按揭成本需要下跌0.75個百分點,明年住宅樓價才會持平。
在市場氣氛審慎下,該行預期低負債比率的發展商,例如長實(01113.HK)及信置(00083.HK),以及執行派息政策的業主如領展(00823.HK)、九倉置業(01997.HK)將會跑贏大市。
該行並提到,新地(00016.HK)周一(11日)股價跌近一成,主因集團目標將2024財年派息比率由60%降低至40-50%,令市場失望,但該行認為此舉合理,因在加息環境下,可預留更多現金,為資產負債表管理提供彈性。
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