《大行報告》中金看好內地新能源車滲透率逐步突破40% 特斯拉及小鵬按月跑贏
乘聯會發布8月產銷數據。中金認為,即使8月是行業淡季,但在各地汽車促消費政策、成都車展前後大量新車推出的背景下,購車需求繼續釋放,車企降價行為未形成持幣待購,帶動8月零售按年轉正,達到歷史高位。8月出口33萬輛,按年增長31%,首八個月累計出口232萬輛,按年增長72%,全年出口有望繼續超出市場預期。
中金認為受新車型推出和車企營銷策略調整等影響,行業需求正快速走出淡季,10至11月低基數下按增速有望達到20%,維持行業按月持續向好的判斷。
新能源車方面,中金指,考慮到新車供給增加、產品及定價均具備競爭力,看好後續新能源滲透率單月逐步突破40%,維持全年新能源乘用車批發或零售銷量接近900/800萬輛的判斷。
中金個股方面推薦特斯拉(TSLA.US)、理想(02015.HK)、長安汽車(000625.SZ)等。該行認為特斯拉處於基本面反轉的較好配置節點,一方面Cyber和新Model 3量產交付帶動強勁的產品周期,AI能力提升推動FSD落地、人形機械人技術周期。同時預計理想汽車淡季之後有望供銷兩旺,建議關注9月第二周交付數據。長安汽車則建議關注其邊際降本。
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