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美國銀行家協會:聯儲局已完成加息周期 明年將減息一厘
美國銀行家協會(American Bankers Association)經濟諮詢委員會認為,美國可能會避免陷入衰退,但未來數個季度的經濟增長似乎將顯著放緩,這將推高失業率並降低通脹,因此預計聯儲局已經完成加息,明年可能減息大約一厘。 諮詢委員會包括來自摩通(JPM.US)、大摩(MS.US)及富國銀行(WFC.US)的經濟學家,其預測定期提交予聯儲局主席鮑威爾及其他聯儲董事會成員。委員會最新預測顯示,按照聯儲局過去的加息幅度以及信貸環境已經收緊,相信未來三個季度美國經濟增長年率將放緩至1%以下,到明年底失業率將從8月的3.8%升至4.4%,通脹預計將從7月的3.2%放緩至2.2%,整體而言明年經濟衰退的機會略低於50%。
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