《大行報告》美銀證券:新地(00016.HK)降派息比率指引 或對其他地產股構成壓力
美銀證券發表報告表示,香港最大房地產公司新鴻基地產(00016.HK)意外地公布收緊股息政策,未來將分派其基礎溢利的40%至50%為股息,此將引起投資者對其他本地地產股採取類似舉措的擔憂。
該行指,雖然利率上升和住宅環境疲軟帶來的壓力確實存在,但相信新地上述決定是出於充分的謹慎而非巨大的壓力。料新地淨負債率為18.2%、淨債務對EBITDA比率為3.5倍、現金對短期債務為2倍,該行預計新地於2024財年利潤將增長7%及能見度良好,77%來自於的香港開發物業的收入已被鎖定。該行認為,新地上述舉措並不一定意味著其他香港房地產公司將仿效新地的行動。
但美銀證券預計新地的舉動將對其他本港房地產股帶來壓力,儘管該行業的估值較低(較資產淨值折讓63%,平均股息收益率為6.7%)。該行指領展(00823.HK)、信和置業(00083.HK)及太古地產(01972.HK)股息分派具防守性。
另一方面,該行維持嘉里建設(00683.HK)的「跑輸大市」評級,因為認為其股息存在下行風險,因為待購買上海黃浦項目二期地塊後,該公司的槓桿率較高。美銀證券亦表示,新世界發展(00017.HK)有進一步削減股息的風險,但成功出售其新創建(00659.HK)股份將為其帶來急需的流動性。鑑於控股股東的大力支持,該行預計恆地(00012.HK)將維持穩定的每股派息。
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