《大行報告》瑞銀下調碧桂園(02007.HK)目標價至0.85元 低線城市風險敞口仍令人擔憂
瑞銀發表報告指,碧桂園(02007.HK)在較低線城市的的業務比重達98%,在銷售疲弱下,相信會進一步減價或作出存貨減值,上半年核心虧損454億元人民幣,遠高於該行估計的淨虧損30億元人民幣,預期公司會繼續虧損,將今年至2025年三年各年預測,下調至淨虧損介乎110億至330億元人民幣,主要受累於銷售下跌及利潤率收窄,目標價由1.2元下調至0.85元,維持「沽售」評級。
碧桂園早前對9月到期的39億元人民幣境內債進行三年展期,目標將餘下8隻境內債亦展期三年,下一步關注焦點是12月及明年1月到期的債券如何處理。
該行估算,碧桂園每月歸屬公司的合約銷售要達到214億元人民幣,才可達致現金流收支平衡,在6月至8月,平均每月合約銷售120億元人民幣,以歸屬權益計即每月錄得負經營現金流96億元人民幣,估計公司會放慢建造步伐以保留資金。
報告稱,由於碧桂園在低線城市敞口龐大仍令人擔憂,近期政策放寬料對低線城市銷售影響有限,公司料持續經歷銷售下行趨勢。該行降其2023至2025年合約銷售預測,並因降價及作出存貨減值,期內毛利率預測降至介乎負4%至正7%。該行對碧桂園2023至2025年各年每股虧損預測分別1.19元、0.55元及0.4元人民幣。
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