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《大行報告》中金:內房政策超預期調整 料銷售修復可期 看好未來3至6個月表現
中金發表報告表示,內地新房銷售連續三周回升,基本面現築底跡像,關注政策落地後來訪與成交修復情況。上周57個樣本城市新房銷售面積按周增長3%,按年降幅收窄至-22%,連續三周實現按周增長;同期15個樣本城市二手房銷售面積按周略降5%,按年小幅增長2%。8月新房和二手房銷售均呈現按周走平、按年跌幅收窄的趨勢,基本面已現築底跡像。 該行指,上周人行下調首付比例和利率下限,同時四個一線城市「認房不認貸」終落地,廈門、成都、重慶、長沙、東莞等重點城市亦有跟進,同時天津、重慶已對首付比例進行下調,整體政策力度超出市場預期。該行認為後續各城市政策仍持續跟進落地,此次調整有望帶動重點一二線城市銷售修復,同時多城持續調整或具預期引導效果,建議積極關注9、10月推盤上量後一線、強二線城市來訪、帶看等前瞻指標熱度以及對應的銷售改善幅度,本周核心城市市場中已初現優質改善盤去化快、二手房前端簽約數據上行等現像。 中金料在本港上市的內房股在更低估值下相較A股更具彈性,認為上述政策力度與落實進度超市場預期,且未來有望帶動高能級以上城市樓市景氣度築底回升、基本面復甦亦存在正向預期差。該行繼續看好內房股未來3至6個月維度的表現,考慮到內房7月以來調整更深、當前估值更具性價比,該行認為其後續股價彈性或更足。推薦基本面均好並兼具估值優勢的內房股:港股首推龍湖(00960.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、建發(01908.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)。 該行同時積極佈局物管板塊。推薦保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、綠城服務(02869.HK)、萬物雲(02602.HK);並建議關注碧桂園服務(06098.HK)。(wl/u) ~
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