《大行報告》瑞銀:內地四個一線城市新房及二手房最近銷售升10%至50% 二線市場穩定
瑞銀發表內房行業報告,該行近期與地產代理商和開發商銷售總監進行溝通後,據悉近期內地四個一線城市的房貸寬鬆導致新房銷售和二手房交易上升10%至50%,但二線及其他城市市場銷售則基本保持穩定,因為這些城市沒有具體的寬鬆措施。該行認為此對竣工及新開工受益較少,因為就建築面積和價值而言,內地一線城市僅佔全國銷售額的各3%及10%。
瑞銀表示,最近營銷的討論點之一是建築面積竣工升級週期何時結束,該行採用自下而上的方法分析了 21個主要開發商(2021年合同銷售市場份額為39%)過去12年的新開工和竣工數據。結論是當前未完成的項目積壓可能支持從2022年底開始計算的1.7年完成上升週期。因此,該行估計全國竣工上升週期可能會持續到2024年中期,但之後隨著新開工量大幅減少(自2021年中期以來下降62%)而下降,該行預測今年下半年、明年上半年及下半年全國完工量按年分別增長15%、增長10%及下跌10%。
該行表示資金是瓶頸,對於已進行債券重組的民營開發商來說,2022年的完工量下降幅度最大,而其訂單積壓仍處於4.3年的高水平,而國有企業/民企同業的訂單期限為1.6至1.7年。儘管積壓量很高,但該行認為或有企業的現金流和流動性狀況可能不足以支持項目完成。
根據現金流和合同銷售分析,幾乎所有開發商在今年7月及8月都出現負經營現金流。因此該行認為竣工節奏很大程度上取決於房地產銷售勢頭。
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