《大行報告》匯豐研究下調贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)及天齊鋰業(09696.HK)盈測及目標價 維持「買入」評級
匯豐研究發表報告,預期鋰價下跌的趨勢將會持續,不過中期而言,在潛新供應延期,以及需求穩定的情況下,鋰價受到支持,維持贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)及天齊鋰業(09696.HK)的「買入」評級,不過將贛鋒目標價由65元下調至51元,天齊目標價由84元下調至63元。
該行預期中國鋰礦生產商的盈利,在第三季將會進一步下跌,主要因為鋰化合物及鋰輝石的平均價格按季下跌,不過非綜合生產商在虧損的情況下,可能在第四季再次減產,在市場供應減少下,或會導致價格回升,有如今年4月至5月的情況。贛鋒及天齊持有部分長期合約,因此平均售價較市場現貨價格穩定。
內地電動車需求持續超出預期,首七個月滲透率33%,抵銷中國以外市場銷量遜預期的影響,估計在2022至2025年期間,鋰需求複合年增長率21%。
按照最新業績和對鋰價的預測,該行將贛鋒2023至2025年三年期間的盈利預測,分別下調17%、19%及9%,天齊的預測分別下調30%、1%及9%。
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