植耀輝:港股及A股反彈 萬九點關口阻力料不輕
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股昨日(4日)因勞動節假期休市。至於港股在9月首個交易日有不俗表現,恆指一度急升516點,A股顯著造好,加上投資者憧憬「認房不認貸」等措施有望逐步恢復內地置業信心,刺激港股有好表現。最終恆指收報18,844點,上升462點或2.5%,科指亦升125點3%,收報4,305點,全日成交相當活躍,達到1,526.9億元。成份股中以中芯國際(00981.HK)表現最佳,升幅達到11%,不過最「標青」仍是內房股。事實上昨日升幅最大股份均為內房股,融創中國(01918.HK)便一度急升超過三成。另恆指成份股調整上周五(9月1日)因颱風襲港關係而改為今日(5日)生效,被剔除之碧桂園(02007.HK)跟隨一眾內房股反彈,升幅達到14.6%。
雖然恆指重上18,800點,惟筆者對後市看法仍較審慎,畢竟措施之影響仍有待觀察,昨日大成交或多或少亦與指數成份調整有關;本周內地亦會陸續公布上月經濟數據表現,在此情況下,筆者建議還是趁反彈減一減磅會較好。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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技術走勢有所轉強 恆指續挑戰19,000點關口
耀才研究部稱,美股昨日(4日)因勞動節假期休市一日。港股方面,9月首個交易日即有理想升幅,恆指高開210點後升幅持續擴大,並一度升516點,逼近18,900點水準,尾市升幅雖有所收窄,但全日計仍升462點或2.5%,收報18,844點,科指則升3%,收報4,305點,全日成交金額達到1,527億元。內房、內銀及資源股造好,火電股則因煤價上升而逆市下跌。內地推出一連串措施扶助內房,令投資氣氛有所改善,A股昨日亦見反彈,當中上綜指上升1.4%至3,177點,深成指亦升1.4%至1,0611點,兩市成交約8,800億元人民幣。只是相關措施成效仍有待觀察,而恆指萬九關阻力預期亦不少,除非A股能續有好表現,否則短期恆指將於18,500至19,000點上落。
至於技術走勢方面,恆指兩連跌後反彈,多個技術指標如MACD及STC等均有轉強跡象,另20天線(18,500點)支持力亦不俗,預期只要守穩該水平,當有利大市向上突破50天線(18,900點)。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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