中國外運(601598.SH):預計四季度隨着聖誕節、雙十一等節日的到來,在旺季運價環比略有上升
格隆匯9月4日丨有投資者向中國外運(601598.SH)提問:管理層對下半年海運和空運的供需及運價是如何展望的?
中國外運回復:海運市場,從供給端看,根據Alphaliner公佈的數據,截至2023年6月末全球運營集裝箱船總運力超過2,700萬TEU,較2022年6月末增加約140萬TEU。航運諮詢機構MSI(MaritimeStrategiesInternational)
分析師預測,2023-2024年集裝箱船新增運力將較2022年增長7%。從需求端看,2022年下半年以來,歐美等地區受高通脹、能源危機、去庫存壓力等因素綜合影響,總體消費能力減弱,需求恢復還有待全球經濟復甦、消費需求回暖。2023年上半年,中國出口集裝箱運價綜合指數(CCFI)持續低位運行,1-6月綜合指數均值較去年同期下降近70%。儘管船公司聯盟通過控制運力投放可以在一定程度上調節供需失衡,但總體看來,國際海運運價,尤其是中國出口集裝箱運價在2023年下半年可能繼續在低位運行,運價的觸底回升有待需求復甦。空運市場,從供給端看,根據國際航協數據,2023年上半年運力同比增長9.9%,比2019年6月水平高3.7%。今年以來,隨着商業航班的逐步恢復,我國航空運力供給已經在逐步增加。未來隨着國際航線客機腹艙的進一步恢復,預計下半年至明年空運運力供給還將繼續得到釋放。從需求端看,按照貨運噸公里(CTKS)計算,上半年全球航空貨運需求同比下降8.1%(國際需求下降8.7%)。我們認為全球航空貨運需求取決於海外跨境電商市場以及高端製造相關的空運需求。運價方面,空運運價自2022年下半年開始逐漸回落,目前已經接近2019年水平。預計四季度隨着聖誕節、雙十一等節日的到來,在旺季運價環比略有上升。
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