瑞銀:短期內人民幣仍有貶值壓力 料將有更多違約事件
瑞銀將中國2023及2024年GDP增長預測分別下調至4.8%和4.2%。瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,下調預測的原因是中國的房地產自4月後經過明顯的下調,直到目前仍未企穩,加上內需有下行壓力,而且政府的財政政策未完成落實。不過,她相信下半年中國的經濟會較上半年好。
汪濤相信,短期內人民幣仍會面對貶值壓力,但相信人民幣匯率暫時會在當前水平上下波動。不過,她估計美國的加息週期已經結束,美元隨後或會貶值,相對來說人民幣則會升值。
對於內房違約風險,她指,這些債務主要是圍繞開發商的營運,相信將來仍繼續會出現違約,但不認為會出現「翻版雷曼事件」。她解釋,雖然內房債務所涉及的金額巨大,但主要屬於內債,而且內銀應會在政府施壓下繼續支持經濟發展。不過,她提到,如果內房危機不能解決,會拖累經濟發展,引起地方債和工商業方面的債務。瑞銀大中華金融行業研究主管顏湄之亦提到,地產商的違約事件持續對內銀構成風險,相信不良資產比率會繼續上升。
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