券商料中行(03988.HK)中期純利最多升2.8% 聚焦營運前景指引
國家金融監督管理總局上月底公布內地銀行上半年淨利潤按年增2.6%,中國銀行(03988.HK)將於本周三(30日)公布今年中期業績,由於宏觀經濟及樓市環境存挑戰,料次季淨息差收窄,本網綜合3間券商預測,中行2023年中期純利料介乎1,207.63億至1,232.25億元人民幣,較2022年中期1,199.24億元人民幣,按年上升0.7%至2.8%。
人行近日發表次季貨幣政策報告指商銀盈利狀況會隨經濟周期波動,對此應理性看待,投資者將關注中行管理層最新營運前景、涉內房行業信貸風險、派息比率指引等。
【中行半年貸款增長由企業推動】
美銀證券料中行今年上半年純利1,221.36億人民幣按年升1.8%,料總體貸款按年升11.6%,估計淨利息收入按年升5.4%,淨息差1.67%按年下跌9個基點,估計非利息收入按年跌2.9%至869.9億人民幣,該行上月報告引述中行管理層指,中行上半年淨新增貸款高於去年同期,企業貸款佔大部分,零售銀行貸款需求尚未完全恢復。按揭貸款在4至6月期間均按月下跌,與內地樓市銷售相符。銀行亦加快處理提早償還按揭,整體按揭貸款餘額按季下跌,中期總計亦少於去年下半年。該行亦引述中行指,按揭定價在貸款市場報價利率(LPR)6月調降後再度下跌。由於物業市場復甦不穩,發展商貸款及商用物業相關貸款或見更多風險個案。
摩根大通估計中行今年上半年純利1,232.25億人民幣按年升2.8%,料第二季純利655.62億人民幣按年升5%,估其第二季撥備前利潤(PPOP)按年升3%至1,046.33億人民幣,料次季淨利息收入按年升4%至1,191.25億人民幣。該行指出,中行淨息差過去數季收縮程度較少,受惠海外淨息差擴闊,但趨勢料將於第二季改變,因海外淨息差擴闊利好正減少,且貸款市場報價利率上季起對中行現有貸款再定價構成壓力,因中行貸款定價慢於同業。該行亦指,中行上季不良貸款比率按季跌14點子,但資產質素或受壓,因境外經濟面臨衰退使境外貸款質素轉差,中行亦採用新金融資產風險分類規則。費用收入方面,該行料中行上季表現溫和改善,包括保險經紀銷售及財富管理業務回穩。
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本網綜合3間券商預測,中行2023年中期純利料介乎1,207.63億至1,232.25億元人民幣,較2022年中期1,199.24億元人民幣,按年上升0.7%至2.8%。
券商│2023年中期純利(人民幣)│按年變幅
摩根大通│1,232.25億元│+2.8%
美銀證券│1,221.36億元│+1.8%
野村│1,207.63億元│+0.7%
按中行2022年中期純利1,199.24億元人民幣計算。
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