一文了解券商於美團(03690.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
美團-W(03690.HK)昨日(24日)股價搶高7.4%收140元,收市後中期業績後,今早(25日)股價低開3.4%後,跌幅擴大,盤中低見130.2元一度下挫7%,最新報131.7元跌5.9%。瑞銀表示美團第二季收入及純利均優於預期,到店、酒店和旅遊業務營運毛利率強勁,但公司指因宏觀經濟會令外賣業務近期面臨阻力,或限制今年的訂單增長,市場亦關注其投資「拼好飯」(平均訂單價值(AOV)為15人民幣),或令公司長期總體單位經濟效益造成輕微壓力,其次是美團優選第二季度虧損按季持平,該行料優選第三季虧損擴大,對比原預期優選今年虧損收窄,因來自同業拼多多(PDD.US)的競爭,或將推遲優選的收支平衡時間表。該行下調對美團目標價由190元升至200元。
美團昨日(24日)收市後公布今年上半年業績扭虧轉盈,錄得純利80.46億元人民幣,遠高於本網綜合5間券商預測區間介乎40.98億至62.1億元人民幣上限水平,上年同期蝕68.19億人民幣。每股基本盈利1.3元人民幣,不派中期息。按非國際財務報告準則計算,中期錄得經調整溢利131.51億人民幣,同樣高於本網綜合8間券商預測區間介乎92.76億至108.98億人民幣的上限水平,對比去年同期經調整虧損淨額15.28億人民幣。
美團上半年收入按年增長30.2%至1,265.82億人民幣,當中核心本地商業及新業務收入分別達到940.85億及324.97億人民幣,按年增長32.6%及23.8%。單計第二季,美團收入錄679.65億人民幣按年升33.4%。期內錄溢利46.89億元,而去年第二季錄得期內虧損11.16億人民幣。公司首席執行官王興在分析員會議上表示,預計第三季外賣增長或略為放緩,主要受累於宏觀經濟以及極端天氣造成短期阻力。
【績後股價挫 憂優選前景】
野村發表研究報告表示,美團第二季度業績中三個核心業務領域收入和利潤率均勝預期。然而,由於宏觀經濟疲軟和今年夏天休閒旅遊激增,其配送業務的第三季度收入指引低於預期,料第三季度訂單量按年增18%至20%。美團預計第三季度到店業務收入按年增30%至33%,基本符合預期,主要受到店GTV按年增長90%以上的推動。該行維持其「買入」,予目標價184港元。
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下表列出5間券商對建行投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
里昂│買入│235元
交銀國際│買入│220元
高盛│買入│205元
瑞銀│買入│200元->190元
野村│買入│184元
券商│觀點
里昂│宏觀存不確定性下,料下半年收入仍可維持按年增逾兩成
交銀國際│到店酒旅業務增長強,商戶活躍度加速廣告營銷
高盛│次季核心本地商業利潤超預期,積極主動策略穩定店內市場定位
瑞銀│上季業績良好,惟宏優選虧損擴大或削弱投資者信心
野村│管理層預計第三季到店業務收入按年增30%-33%符預期
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