《大行報告》摩通:內地LPR利率降幅小過預期令市場失望 料今年新屋銷售挫10%
摩根大通發表報告,指內地繼上周早於預期下調政策利率(一年期利率降15點子、七日逆回購利率降10點子)後,上日(21日)下調指標市場利率(一年期LPR利率降10點子,五年期LPR利率意外維持不變),但降幅小過預期。
報告稱,小於預期的LPR利率降幅,特別是五年期LPR利率維持不變,令市場感混淆。該行相信市場對政策回應持續緩慢感失望。摩通稱,此舉或反應內地當局關注內銀淨息差;人行曾指出商業銀行須維持合理利潤,並保持淨息差穩定,以確保持續貸款生成及管理金融風險(特別是本地銀行在現市況下資本補充的渠道有限)。內銀亦可能準備為按揭貸款的資金來源以較低利率進行再融資,故偏好維持五年期LPR利率不變。
摩通表示,在宏觀而言,房地產仍是最大經濟逆風。在碧桂園(02007.HK)陷財困、溢出效應波及影子銀行及地方政府融資工具(LGFV)下,內地房市自4月起的失速情況進一步惡化。該行對房市展望基本情境預測由「較弱的穩定」,改為「雙底」。該行料今年房地產投資按年跌8.2%,新屋銷售挫10%,新屋動工更瀉25%,土地銷售縮20%。
該行料宏觀及樓市活動疲弱將觸發進一步政策寬鬆。在貨幣政策層面,在上日LPR降息後,該行料本季(第三季)將降存款準備金率(RRR)25點子,以支持在8至9月發行逾一萬億元人民幣地方政府債券。上周五(18日)人行與金融監管機構與主要內銀及政策性銀行開會,強勁需要向實體經濟提供信貸支持,優化按揭政策,不同金融部門須合力應對地方債問題。
報告稱,未來數周內地應有進一步樓市寬鬆政策,如放寬按揭政策及限購,即使風險在於力度太小。該行基本情境預測下預測8至9月內地經濟活動回升,如果政策力度持續溫和,或房市調整溢出效應加劇,則該行對內地的預測有下行風險。
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