《大行報告》高盛微降華潤啤酒(00291.HK)目標價至73.7元 維持確信買入名單內
高盛發表研究報告指,華潤啤酒(00291.HK)管理層強調,雖然7月至8月的競爭形勢嚴峻,但9月起的低基數應該會對業務表現有幫助,公司仍在努力達成下半年銷量正增長的目標,又重申到2025年次高端產品產量350萬噸的長期目標。
報告引述集團指,下半年的啤酒包裝成本可能會較上半年有進一步下降空間,從而推動成本效益,而澳洲取消大麥關稅的潛在效益可能會在明年更加明顯,故維持啤酒經常性EBIT的全年指引為雙位數增長。公司仍以三年內烈酒業務銷售額100億元為目標,預計隨著管理能力和營運效率的提升,盈利能力將得到改善。
高盛將集團2023至25年的經常性淨利潤預測下調0.9至1.9%,料期內盈利複合年增長率為22%。對於啤酒細分市場,該行將今年的經常性EBIT預測小幅下調0.2%,並上調2024至26年預測0.2至0.6%。至於烈酒,該行將今年的EBIT預測下調56%,但基本維持銷售預測。該行將華潤啤酒目標價由74元微降至73.7元,維持集團於確信買入名單。
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