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《大行報告》摩通下調龍湖(00960.HK)目標價至22.5元 評級「增持」
阿思達克 08-21 10:28
摩通發表研究報告指出,龍湖(00960.HK)仍然是最具防禦性的民營企業開發商,並且很可能成為目前行業動盪中為數不多的倖存民企開發商者之一。該行認為,由於龍湖財務管理審慎,加上早期專注於投資性房地產的戰略,公司短期流動性風險較低。 該行稱,龍湖今年到期債券金額僅1億元人民幣,而明年到期境內債券約117億元人民幣,管理層料可透過新增經營貸覆蓋超過100億元人民幣額度。至於全部逾110個投資物業竣工後料可獲得總共900億元人民幣的貸款。目前,公司經營性貸款餘額約為400億元人民幣。下一批離岸債券將於2027年到期。 此外,該行假設龍湖今年餘下時間不再進行土地儲備,根據2023年2,000億元人民幣的銷售目標,公司淨現金流將達152億元人民幣。然而,由於近期房地產銷售轉弱,該行為公司進行了壓力測試,如要在經營現金流出的情況下實現收支平衡,今年下半年合同銷售總額需要每月多於135億元人民幣,意味著按年跌30%,或售罄率達37%(相對於上半年為41%)。該行又指,目前龍湖表現出的壓力信號極小,唯一受壓因素是吳亞軍去年第四季辭任主席等職務。 該行認為龍湖上半年盈利大致符合預期,但開發物業毛利率14.3%遜預期。該行料公司2023至2025年開發物業毛利率達16%至17%,核心淨利潤各跌14%、跌1%及升3%,較預期低13%、18%及23%。由於開發物業貢獻較低,該行料公司的租金和服務收入對毛利率貢獻將由去年的23%,增加至今年的33%,至2025年將高達40%。該行維持對其「增持」評級,目標價由23.5元下調至22.5元。
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