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一文了解券商於東方海外(00316.HK)公布中期業績後最新目標價及觀點
東方海外(00316.HK)中期盈利及派息大減,今早低開4.7%後,盤中曾低見105港元一度下挫13%,最新報111.3元跌7.8%。摩根士丹利表示,東方海外中期純利大致符合預期,因已考慮到人民幣兌美元貶值等因素,中期派息比率50%,對比其2021年至2022年中期派息比率70%至100%,指其營運現金流按年大跌91%至5.48億美元,重申對其「減持」評級,因料集裝箱行業於2023年至2024年情況會對公司盈利持續受壓。 東方海外公布今年中期純利按年跌80%至11.29億美元,每股盈利1.71美元,中期股息按年減近80%至69美仙,特別股息按年減少93%至17美仙。期內,總收入按年減約59%至45.41億美元;毛利按年減少85%至9.03億美元。上半年,東方海外航運總體貨運量減少1%,每個標準箱平均收入減少60%。燃油均價為每噸609美元,相比2022年同期每噸729美元,令總體燃油成本減少17% 【績後股價挫 憂行業前景】 富瑞表示,東方海外今年上半年純利11.29億美元,高於該行原預期8億美元,由於集裝箱收入已於7月初的2023年第二季度營運更新中披露,盈利超出預期是由於成本降低,與該行估計的主要差異在於業務或管理費用上半年為6,900萬美元,但顯著低於2022年上半年的4.63億美元。該行預計東方海外於2023年下半年淨利潤將下降64%至5.35億美元,反映出跨太平洋年度合約的下降以及該行認為近期跨太平洋即期運價已接近高峰,未來再上升是不可持續的。該行重申「跑輸大市」評級,但上調目標價由83元升至87元。 匯豐環球研究發表報告表示,東方海外中期息稅前利潤按年跌85%至8.34億美元,略勝於該行預期的89%,惟大幅低於市場預期,僅達全年預期的34%。該行指市場對東方海外估值錯誤定價,認為其估值溢價有可能回落,加上行業正處於另一個階段的開始,料其目前估值似乎過於樂觀,但將其目標價由90港元上調至95港元。該行預計東方海外未來盈利將減弱,及仍未反映在仍然樂觀市場估值上,重申對其「減持」評級。 --------------------------------------------- 下表列出4間券商對東方海外投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 大和│買入│180元 匯豐環球研究│沽售│90->95元 富瑞│跑輸大市│83元->87元 摩根士丹利│減持│83.1元 券商│觀點 大和│維持派發特別息 匯豐研究│中期息稅前利潤遠遜市場預期,行業長期低迷預計未來盈利減弱 富瑞│因成本降低上半年淨利潤勝預期,惟集裝箱即期運費已近高峰 摩根士丹利│繼續預計2023至2024年集裝箱運輸業盈利壓力持續
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