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巴克萊指投資者質疑美聯儲貨幣政策緊縮性是否足夠
巴克萊美息研究主管Anshul Pradhan發表報告指,縱使美國十年期及三十年期美債孳息已分別升至2007及2011年以來最高,美債拋售仍有空間持續。
報告指,不但數據指向美國經濟仍有相當動力,亞特蘭大聯儲的GDPNow模型亦預測美國第三季經濟增長或升至5.8%,在經濟增長高於趨勢甚至可能加速下,即使美聯儲收緊貨幣政策,亦會令人質疑貨幣政策是否處於緊縮性,市場正因應有關情況上調實質利率。
報告認為,縱使債息已大幅上升,孳息率仍未見頂,並基於期貨市場壓力正在建立,指出投資者正擔心進一步的大規模拋售。
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