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惠譽:內地生豬養殖企業利潤率回升需時 價格前景不確定
惠譽評級表示,中國生豬養殖企業利潤率回升或需時,主要是下半年生豬價格前景溫和,以及糧食主產區的強降雨,或會導致飼料成本上漲;而成本負擔較輕且營運效率較高的領先生豬養殖企業或實現更持續的經營性現金流入。 惠譽表示,第二季生豬價格進一步走弱,即使消費需求回暖,6月末生豬價格按月回落至每公斤14元,下半年季節性需求走強或拉動生豬價格回調,但大型生豬養殖企業不斷增加出欄量致使市場供應持續過剩,或會掣肘價格反彈。 惠譽認為,下半年價格前景呈現不確定性,全國夏季小麥收成不及去年的水平,而最近東北地區的強降雨可能會影響今年的玉米產量,不過進口增加及芽麥在飼料配方中的使用增加可能有助於抑制價格波動。 惠譽預期,龍頭生豬養殖企業的成本狀況將繼續受益於產能利用率與效率的進一步提升,從而助力較小型同業更早和更快地實現利潤率與經營性現金流的雙回升。(ca/u) ~
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