《大行報告》匯豐研究大削今年內地房市銷售預測 偏好潤地(01109.HK)及中海外(00688.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告,大幅下調今年內地房地產銷售預測,繼續偏好華潤置地(01109.HK)及中海外(00688.HK)。
報告指,早前預測內地樓市出現「L型」復甦是過份樂觀,目前的挑戰是如何量化樓市下行風險,以及優質國營企業的財務狀況會否受到拖累,估計今年全國住宅銷售按年下跌18%,較之前預測的下跌2%更差,而行業變化迅速,要預測危機何時解除更加困難,樓價弱勢亦反映發展商面對的減值風險增加。
該行認為,在未有政策支持下,樓市下行風險持續,房企估值進一步下跌,甚至影響最穩定的國營企業,不過繼續認為潤地及中海外是倖存者,將會在波動的市場中勝出。該行對潤地及中海外持「買入」評級。
報告又指,碧桂園(02007.HK)去年底總負債1.4萬億元人民幣,略高於萬科(02202.HK)、但遠低於恆大(03333.HK),相信碧桂園的危機對行業生態系統的影響,亦遠低於恆大,不認為碧桂園會倒閉,而民營發展商亦不會全部撤出市場。
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