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惠譽料下半年美國銀行業續面對挑戰 資金和信貸成本高企拉長業績低迷期
阿思達克 08-16 10:44
評級機構惠譽表示,2023年下半年美國銀行業表現可能持續面臨挑戰,在資金和信貸成本高企的情況下增長放緩將拉長業績低迷期,對中小型機構而言尤為如此。美國銀行業2023年第二季度業績反映出存款成本超過資產收益率、撥備計提增加以及非利息支出繼續面臨通脹上行壓力。美國前20大銀行的第二季度業績均普遍走弱,基本符合預期。 淨息差將繼續收窄,但今年剩餘時間內其收窄速度將有所放緩。美國前20大銀行的淨利潤總額按季下降7.9%。按年口徑淨利潤總額增長4.9%,但大多數銀行的淨利潤為負。基於美聯儲加息週期已近尾聲的假設,惠譽預計存款貝塔係數上升將對評級產生溫和影響。 鑑於減值損失計提具有前置的特點,惠譽預期信貸成本的攀升將於2023年下半年趨於穩定。基於遠期利率曲線和惠譽對美國經濟將於2023年第四季和2024年第一季陷入溫和衰退的預期,今年剩餘時間內美國銀行業業績表現將保持平穩。此外,資金和信用成本的上升應能通過手續費和佣金收入的溫和回升以及營運效率的改善得到緩釋。 受宏觀經濟前景不確定性及擬議監管資本要求的影響,各大銀行預計將保持較高的資本水平。大多數銀行將受益於充裕的評級空間,因其信用質量已趨於疫情前水平。未來幾個季度,銀行的資本和流動性緩衝預計將有所增加,以應對更趨嚴格的監管環境,這將紓解銀行盈利能力趨弱帶來的影響並支撐其信用狀況。
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