《大行報告》花旗料友邦(01299.HK)上半年按實際匯率計新業務價值按年升29%
花旗發表研究報告指,友邦(01299.HK)即將公布中期業績。該行預計,集團期內按固定匯率(CER)新業務價值按年將升33%,實際匯率(AER)按年升29%。按地區劃分,該行預計整體新業務價值將錄得積極增長,其中中國內地、香港及泰國業務更好。
該行又預計,友邦保險的契約服務邊際(CSM)餘額將較對上一個半年小幅增長1%至509億美元,但由於索賠變得正常及股票回購後投資規模縮小,稅後營運利潤將按年下降4%。該行相信,受到投資、股息支付、回購和外匯損失的拖累,集團的企業價值將下滑1.5%。該行認為集團最近的股價調整更多是由於技術原因,而其基本面依然穩固,料集團2024及2025財年的新業務價值將繼續有中至高雙位數增長。
該行下調集團2023財年的每股內含價值(EVPS)預測3%,惟大部分會被較高的新業務價值預測所抵銷,因此,目標價由106元微降至105元,評級為「買入」。
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