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郭家耀:憂內房危機港股或下試18,500關 內地7月進出口數據遜
匯盈國際資產管理董事總經理郭家耀稱,美股上周五(11日)個別發展,美國最新生產物價指數升幅較預期強勁,大市好淡爭持,三大指數收市升跌不一。美元走勢向好,美國十年期債息上升至4.15厘水平,金價表現受壓,油價溫和向好。港股預託證券普遍下跌,預料大市早段跟隨低開。 內地股市上周五下跌,滬綜指失守3,200點水平,並以全日低位收市,大市成交繼續清淡。 港股表現持續偏弱,指數跌至19,000點水平,成交略為增加。投資者繼續憂慮內房危機,加上宏觀經濟表現未見改善,預料指數有機會下試18,500點支持,上方阻力下移至19,500點水平。 另國家海關總署公布,內地7月份進出口4,829.2億美元,下降13.6%。其中,出口下降14.5%,遜於市場預期下跌13.2%;進口下降12.4%,亦遜於市場預期下跌5.6%。貿易順差806億美元,收窄19.4%。 今年前七個月,以美元計價,進出口總值3.4萬億美元,下降6.1%。其中,出口下跌5%;進口下跌7.6%;貿易順差4895.7億美元,擴大3.5%。 內地7月份進出口數據低於市場預期,主要貿易夥伴的出口普遍疲軟,顯示外部需求疲弱。進口有所下降,部分原因是去年大宗商品價格基數較高。整體而言,外圍經濟不明朗,繼續對出口表現構成影響,短期難望有所扭轉。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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