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大新銀行料內地今年消費物價通脹僅1% 生產物價短期或見底
阿思達克 08-10 09:31
大新銀行經濟研究及投資策略部表示,內地7月消費物價倒退,生產物價連續十個月通縮,反映經濟動力轉弱。消費物價指數由上月持平轉為按年下降0.3%,為2021年2月以來首次出現倒退,降幅略小於市場預期的0.4%。 大新銀行指,經季節調整的消費物價指數,則按月回升0.2%,終止連續五個月倒退的趨勢;整體而言,最近內地受到極端天氣所影響,短線可能推動食品及基本消費品需求,不過由於去年年中開始食品價格升幅加快,未來幾個月食品價格按年升幅可能繼續受壓;另一方面,非食品物價按月錄得反彈,能源價格下半年跌幅或續收窄,或有助穩定整體物價,故預期今年整體通脹或僅1%。 大新銀行指,未來環球製造業持續收縮,但能源價格跌幅料逐步收窄,估計生產物價指數短期內或將見底,惟全年或仍會錄得2至3%通縮。(ca/u) ~
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