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大新银行料内地今年消费物价通胀仅1% 生产物价短期或见底
阿思达克 08-10 09:31
大新银行经济研究及投资策略部表示,内地7月消费物价倒退,生产物价连续十个月通缩,反映经济动力转弱。消费物价指数由上月持平转为按年下降0.3%,为2021年2月以来首次出现倒退,降幅略小于市场预期的0.4%。 大新银行指,经季节调整的消费物价指数,则按月回升0.2%,终止连续五个月倒退的趋势;整体而言,最近内地受到极端天气所影响,短线可能推动食品及基本消费品需求,不过由于去年年中开始食品价格升幅加快,未来几个月食品价格按年升幅可能继续受压;另一方面,非食品物价按月录得反弹,能源价格下半年跌幅或续收窄,或有助稳定整体物价,故预期今年整体通胀或仅1%。 大新银行指,未来环球制造业持续收缩,但能源价格跌幅料逐步收窄,估计生产物价指数短期内或将见底,惟全年或仍会录得2至3%通缩。(ca/u) ~
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