《大行報告》麥格理下調中石化(00386.HK)目標價至5.5元 評級「跑贏大市」
麥格理發表研究報告指出,預期在強勁的國內需求下,第二季成品油價格已接近發改委限價上限水平,雖然是淡季,但預期中石化(00386.HK)的營銷EBIT或按季增長7%至85億元人民幣,超出預期。料公司成品油產品營銷銷量達3,630萬噸,按季跌35%,按年增長32%,較2021年第二季高出13%。
然而,該行料鑑於化工相關石油產品價格下跌,中石化次季煉油業務可能受壓,惟在強勁的政策支持下,相信最壞時期已過。該行料中石化第二季煉油毛利將達每桶5.7美元,按季跌3美元,並將2023至2025財年的每桶煉油毛利下調1美元至1.6美元。
基於石油價格及匯兌預測,該行將中石化2023至2025年的每股盈利預測下調0%至4%,對其目標價下調10%至5.5港元,評級「跑贏大市」。
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