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《大行報告》花旗:中國PMI呈不均衡復甦 料本季屬政策出台密集期
阿思達克 07-31 15:06
就中國內地今早(31日)公布7月官方製造業PMI升至49.3(市場預期48.9)、7月官方非製造業PMI降至51.5(市場預期53)。花旗發表報告表示﹐中國7月份製造業PMI再次小幅改善及超出市場預期,但非製造業PMI則因房地產疲軟和經濟重新開放動力減弱而未能達標。不均衡的「K型」復甦可能正處於收斂的早期階段,工業勢頭顯示呈觸底跡象,該行相信相關事態發展不會破壞當局促增長政策。 該行指,內地7月份製造業PMI持續回升,但房地產行業尚未走出困境,但工業活動似乎正在企穩。一旦房地產指標開始復甦,該行料此可能已經進入(短期)上行週期的一半,而更重要的是以上的事態發展,料不會導致政策緊縮的擔憂。 花旗認為今年第三季度是內地政策出台密集期,預計會下調存款準備金率及作政策性降息、國債發行加速以及房地產寬鬆措施等,若然有效,這些努力可能在今年第三季度末至第四季的經濟活動數據上有所反映,而關鍵是政策持續穩定落實。
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