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《大行報告》瑞銀:大多數內房指需求端能見度較低 很大程度上取決於政策放鬆
瑞銀發表研究報告指,上半年內房發展商盈利仍極具挑戰,主要是反映了上年合約銷售表現,其中首100名開發商平均下跌了40%。該行預料,由於收入或利潤受壓、以及資產減值,令大部分私營企業發展商將於上半年出現虧損。 該行表示,在六大發展商當中,預料華潤置地(01109.HK)、龍湖地產(00960.HK)和越秀地產(00123.HK)將跑贏大市,上半年錄得0%至5%的盈利增長;其中越秀地產受惠於上年合同銷售增長帶來的收入增長、龍湖地產及華潤置地則受到今年上半年租金收入復甦的支持。該行預料,中國海外(00688.HK)及萬科集團(02202.HK)上半年盈利或分別按年跌30%及26%。該行表示,首選仍然是華潤置地和越秀地產。 該行指,大多數內地房企指需求端能見度較低,很大程度上取決於政策放鬆,對於接下來的業績季度,預料發展商不會改變年初提供的指引,並對其前景持保守看法。該行認為,他們或仍等待更多政策放鬆的細節出台,其後再加大土地收購的力度。
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