中銀香港:美聯儲爲未來加息留空間 料明年減息機會較大
美國聯儲局一如預期宣佈再度加息0.25釐,但沒有表明加息週期是否已完結,並指未來加息步伐將在逐次會議中以數據作判斷。美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示9月加息及按兵不動的可能性均存在,中銀香港個人數字金融產品部財富策略及分析處高級財富策略師張詩琪認爲,美聯儲爲未來加息留下伏筆,主要是管理市場對通脹回落的樂觀預期,以防止通脹反彈時需要進一步收緊政策。
今次會後聲明內容反映當局對未來經濟增長較上月稍爲樂觀,但同時表達出早前美國銀行業事件令信貸緊縮將對經濟造成壓力。至於通脹層面,委員認爲扣除食品及能源的核心通脹下行速度較慢,加上就業市場仍緊張,故此預期服務業通脹仍然高企。雖然委員表達對核心通脹的憂慮,但美國自第二季度開始,通脹進入急速下行的勢頭,6月核心通脹率更下降至4.8%並低於聯邦基金利率。
張詩琪認爲由於美國核心通脹於去年9月才見頂,基於高基數效應,相信未來數月核心通脹仍會繼續下跌。議息後利率互換市場預計,今年再加息25基點的可能性輕微下跌。至於年內減息的可能性,美聯儲主席鮑威爾在記者會中,表示會以多方面因素作評估,但預期年內減息可能性不高。張詩琪認爲基於美國經濟衰退的風險正在下降,而利率期貨亦反映減息概率較大機會於明年出現。
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