華泰證券:海工鑽井平台困境反轉,週期共振持續性大幅拉長,首次覆蓋中集集團並予“增持”評級
格隆匯7月26日丨華泰證券發研報指,行業復甦傳導疊加供給端底部大幅出清,目前鑽井平台已成為產業鏈緊缺環節。自2022年底以來鑽井平台的新造、二手報價均已回到2010-2014年上一輪週期高點水平。考慮到2-3年的新鑽井平台建造週期,且與上一輪週期不同民船訂單正持續擠佔海工產能。未來數年鑽井平台將持續處在供需錯配的狀態。而本輪上行週期供過端的剋制與民船上行週期的共振,將使得本輪週期的持續性大幅拉長。此外,週期底部行業格局已整體重構,中國企業在設計、總裝製造、關鍵配套等方面持續打破歐美壟斷。隨着優質海工產能稀缺加上能源轉型背景下深水油氣資源高效益、低碳排放強度的優勢,持續看好睏境反轉、具有全球競爭力的國內優質鑽井設備運營和製造企業。推薦全球物流及能源製造龍頭中集集團(000039 CH,增持,目標價7.6元/2039 HK,增持,目標價5.63港元)。中集集團是一家為全球物流及能源行業服務的多元化跨國業務集團。15年前,中集集團開始佈局海工裝備業務,是中國深水平台設計建造中心。中集集團交付的海上石油鑽井平台已覆蓋全球主流海洋油氣產區,產品種類豐富。四十年來,公司將業務從集裝箱延伸至海洋工程、道路運輸車輛和能源化工及液態食品裝備,形成了四大業務佈局。預計公司2023-2025年歸母淨利潤分別為15.9/21.6/29.2 億,同比增速-50.8%/36.2%/35.2%,對應 PE 分別為24/18/13倍。考慮到公司業務佈局廣泛、持續多元化發展,估值有一定折讓,我們給予公司23年26倍PE,對應目標價7.6元;參考 2023 年至今公司H、A股PE比率均值67%,港元匯率取0.91,對應H股2023年PE17.7x及H股目標價5.63港元,首次覆蓋均予“增持”評級。
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