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大行評級 | 摩通調整內銀股目標價 降中信銀行評級至“中性”
格隆匯7月26日丨摩根大通發表研究報吿指,大中華區銀行將會於本週開始公佈第二季業績。該行預計,匯控(0005.HK)和渣打(2888.HK)繼續錄得強勁的盈利增長並宣佈股票回購。香港本地銀行的盈利增長或受到信貸成本降低所支持,但本地貸款需求疲弱、淨息差持平或温和下降,以及對中國商業地產的持續憂慮可能會拖累股價表現。該行表示,中國銀行業的盈利增長可能較首季微弱復甦,部分原因是基數較低。該行指,今年次季內銀的淨息差收縮應會較首季放緩,從而導致淨利息收入增長更具韌性。另外,五大國有銀行將於今年在其保險業務中採用IFRS 17,導致非費用收入和營運支出的同比趨勢出現波動,預計第二季盈利同比增長6%,較第一季(2%)有所提升。其中,民生銀行(1988.HK)和中國銀行(3988.HK)的盈利可見度較高,而農業銀行(1288.HK)和工商銀行(1398.HK)的盈利增長可能持續疲弱。該行調整內銀股目標價。當中,中信銀行(0998.HK)評級從“增持”下調至“中性”,目標價4.2港元。該行提到,中信銀行股價自年初至今已上升約兩成,認為進一步上升的空間有限。
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